Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is scheduled to announce its second-quarter 2023 earnings on July 28, before the opening bell.

In the previous quarter, the integrated energy giant outperformed expectations, reporting earnings per share of $2.83, excluding identified items, beating the Consensus Estimate of $2.65. The strong earnings were driven by solid contributions from the Energy Products business line, although they were partially offset by lower earnings from upstream operations.

ExxonMobil has a history of beating the Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.2%.

Estimate Trend

Over the past 30 days, the Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s second-quarter earnings per share has seen two upward revisions and four downward revisions. The estimated figure suggests a 48.8% decline from the prior-year reported number.

The Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $80 billion, indicating a 30.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

During the June-end quarter, the oil price scenario was not as favorable as in the prior-year quarter, which might have led to a decline in the average realized crude prices – a key metric in determining crude oil sales.

The Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s daily production volumes is pegged at 3,730 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), showing a slight decline from the 3,732 MBoe/d reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the company’s daily production volumes is slightly lower at 3,720.8 MBoe/d, also indicating a decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Additionally, the Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s earnings after income tax from the upstream segment is $4,982 million, suggesting a significant decline from the $11,371 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the same is slightly higher at $5,600 million, but it still indicates a decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The combination of lower production and prices is likely to have impacted ExxonMobil’s upstream operations in the second quarter.

As ExxonMobil prepares to announce its Q2 earnings, market participants will closely monitor the company’s performance amid the prevailing market conditions and challenges in the energy sector. The results will shed light on how the company navigates the ever-changing dynamics of the industry and its strategies for future growth.

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