Can Coinbase Expect a Boost in Q4 Earnings from Higher Average Fees?

Coinbase Stock

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is gearing up to announce its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on February 15, after the market closes. Notably, the company has surprised investors with its earnings performance in each of the quarters reported in 2023.

Let’s delve into the factors that could shape the upcoming quarterly results.

Factors in Focus

The fourth quarter likely saw a dip in trading volumes, primarily due to the ongoing decline in crypto asset volatility, which serves as a key driver for trading activity.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total trading volume stands at 116 million, marking a 20% decrease from the figure reported a year ago. Specifically, the consensus estimate for total consumer volume is expected to be around 17.11 million, reflecting a decline of 14.5% from the year-ago figure. Meanwhile, the consensus for total institutional volume is forecasted at 104 million, down 16.8% from the year-ago figure.

Despite the decline in trading volumes, transaction revenues are anticipated to show improvement, driven by a higher blended average fee for consumers. It is expected that a balanced mix of simple and advanced trading volumes contributed to this increase in the blended average fee. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenues is projected at $344 million, indicating a 6.8% rise from the figure reported a year ago.

Breaking it down further, the consensus estimate for consumer transaction revenue is $343 million, reflecting an 11% increase from the year-ago figure. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for institutional transaction revenue is $21 million, showing a robust 56% surge from the figure reported a year ago.

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