Twitter’s (NYSE:TWTR) “bold” move of banning Donald Trump even if he is President again did not cost the company anything. Markets sent the Twitter stock to all-time highs instead. How may losing active users in the future hurt Twitter’s prospects?
Twitter “boldly” banned Trump after the former President lost his power to do anything about it. But in the fourth quarter, it posted revenue growing 27.7% Y/Y to $1.29 billion. Monetizable daily active users, or mDAU, grew by 27% to 192 million.
The markets are predicting that the Trump user base will have no monetizable value in the future. Markets are also betting that not all followers will quit the site, either. That’s a reasonable assumption. Still, the banning of the account and many others is disturbing. The company forecast breakeven earnings per share at best.
Twitter expects stock-based compensation in FY2021 will be between $525 million and $575 million. Investors are effectively paying for compensation and get to share of the profits. In the next quarter, the falling user base will hurt revenue and profits. Fortunately for investors, markets are very frothy and will overlook the mDAU drop in 2021.
Twitter stock may have peaked from here. Investors should consider the risks of holding it ahead of the share price weakening.