Stimulus Baked into the Cake, Markets at Record Highs



Monday, February 8, 2021

We start a new week looking toward another bulk delivery of quarterly earnings reports, including some big names and market leaders such as

Twitter

TWTR


, reporting Q4 earnings tomorrow,

Uber

UBER


, releasing its latest Q4 figures Wednesday and

The Walt Disney Co.

DIS


, which posts its fiscal Q1 results this Thursday. Both Twitter and Uber carry Zacks #3 Ranks (Hold) into the new week, with Disney currently at Zacks #4 Rank (Sell).

The big news, such that it is, this morning is the $1.5 billion in Bitcoin purchased by

Tesla

TSLA


. This has sent the cryptocurrency up to fresh all-time highs, +15% to right around $44K. The electric car (EV) leader also announced it will be allowing Tesla vehicles to be purchased with Bitcoin, in order to “further diversify and maximize returns on our cash,” according to a company statement in this morning’s filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC).

Late last week, Congress passed a measure to bring President Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package closer to passage into law. Friday, on a strict party-line 51-50 vote in the Senate (all 50 members of the GOP voted “no” while all 50 Democrats voted “yes,” with Democratic Vice President Harris casting the tie-breaker), the measure brought the initial $1.9 trillion almost completely intact: additional $1400 stimulus checks, increases to child tax credits, and extensions to pandemic-related unemployment benefits, among other things.

Notably missing from this version of the bill is the addition of a mandatory $15 per hour minimum wage, which was successfully tabled by Sen. Joni Ernst (R – Iowa). But $130 billion in funding to assist the re-opening of public schools nationwide, a $160 billion program for national vaccinations, healthcare spending and Covid testing all make it into what appears to be the final version of this bill. This week, the White House may signal when this massive program is likely to become law.

Market futures are now looking toward fresh all-time highs ahead of the opening bell to kick off a new trading week. The Dow looks to open +140 points or so, with the Nasdaq +75 and the S&P 500 up 17 points. More than anything, this stimulus package appears to be being absorbed into the market at present. This is not to discount Q4 earnings season, which has performed better than expected, but points to a profound trajectory shift in U.S. economic growth, especially by the second half of this year.


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