S&P 500 buybacks decline significantly in Q2 2019; expenditures still remain higher than the pre-2018 levels

This Post Was Syndicated Under License Via QuoteMedia

– Q2 2019 share repurchases were $164.5 billion – 20.1% lower than Q1 2019, 13.7% lower than Q2 2018, and 26.2% lower than the record Q4 2018. – Apple continues to lead, spending $18.2 billion – down from last quarter’s issue level record $23.8 billion, but still the 6th highest expenditure historically. – Buybacks remain concentrated among the top 20 companies, accounting for 50.4% of the total. – Buybacks for the 12-month period ending in June 2019 were $797.0 billion – down from $823.2 billion in Q1 2019, but up 23.4% from the same period last year. – Buyback impact remains broad, as one in four companies used buybacks to reduce their share count by at least four percent and increase their EPS.

NEW YORK, Sept. 16, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — S&P Dow Jones Indices (“S&P DJI”) announced today that preliminary Q2 2019 S&P 500® stock buybacks, or share repurchases, were $164.5 billion. This was the second consecutive quarterly decline after four consecutive quarters of record buybacks. Q2 2019 buybacks were 20.1% lower than Q1 2019’s $205.6 billion, 13.7% lower year-over-year from Q2 2018’s $190.6 billion, and 26.2% lower than the Q4 2018 record expenditure of $223.0 billion.  

Historical data on S&P 500 buybacks are available at www.spdji.com/indices/equity/sp-500

Key Takeaways:

  • While companies significantly reduced their Q2 2019 buyback expenditures from the record setting quarters of 2018, levels remain higher than 2017 and prior periods.
    • The 2018 tax rate decline may have pushed companies to overspend on buybacks, posting a 55% gain over 2017 and a 39% gain over the prior record in 2015.
  • The cumulative rolling four quarters of repurchases continued to impact EPS as 24.2% of the issues reduced share counts by at least 4% year-over-year, slightly down from the Q1 2019 24.9% rate, and substantially up from the Q2 2018’s 15.6%, giving 1-in-4 issues at least a 4% EPS tailwind.
  • S&P 500 Q2 2019 dividends totaled $118.7 billion, up 6.3% from the Q2 2018 of $111.6 billion; Q3 2019 is set to post a new record, in the $122 billion range.
  • Total shareholder return of buybacks and dividends for the quarter came in at $283.2 billion, down 12.4% from the Q1 2019 period expenditure of $323.1 billion and down 6.3% from the $302.2 billion reported for Q2 2018.
  • Total shareholder return for the 12-month period ending June 2019 declined to $1.269 trillion, from the record 12-month March 2019 level of $1.288 trillion, and was up 17.3% from the year-over-year 12-month Q2 2018 of $1.081 trillion.

“In what may have been a reaction to their tax-inspired record-setting buying spree of 2018, companies significantly pulled back on their Q2 2019 buybacks, said Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.  “While the decline is significant compared to 2018, it remains higher than the pre-2018 levels. Estimates vary, but a base amount of $170 billion a quarter has been emerging as the consensus level of buybacks going forward.”

Silverblatt also found that buybacks continue to be top heavy, with the top 20 issues accounting for 51.4% of the buybacks, up a tick from the Q1 2019 51.2%, as the 10-year average is 44.1%. 

Q2 2019 GICS® Sector Analysis:

Information Technology buybacks continued to dominate, even as they decreased 20.3% to $54.2 billion compared to $68.0 billion for Q1 2019. Twelve-month expenditures were up 33.8% to $265.8 billion from $198.7 billion spent for the same period in 2018. The sector represents 33.0% of the index’s buybacks for the quarter, flat from last quarter.

Materials buyback declined 49.3% to $2.4 billion compared to $4.8 billion for Q1 2018. Utilities declined 40.4%, to 0.9 billion from 1.5 billion in Q1 2019.

Health Care buybacks continued to be volatile, as they decreased 44.5% to $17.1 billion, down from $30.7 billion for Q1 2019, as the 12-months ending in Q2 2019, buybacks were $93.6 billion, up 6.1% from the $88.2 billion spent in the corresponding 2018 period. 

Issues:

The five issues with the highest total buybacks for Q2 2019 are:

  • Apple (AAPL) again led in buybacks spending $18.2 billion in Q2 2018, ranking 6th in S&P 500 history, as the level was down 23.8% from the record $23.8 billion spent in Q1 2019. Over the past 12-months, Apple has spent $71.4 billion on buybacks, almost twice the value of Ford Motor Company, up from $63.9 billion in the prior 12-month period.
  • Bank of America (BAC): $6.5 billion for Q2 2019, up from $6.3 billion for Q1 2019; in the last 12-months they spent $23.0 billion, up from $17.7 billion.
  • Oracle (ORCL): $6.3 billion for Q2 2019, down up from their $10.0 billion Q1 2019 expenditure; in the last 12 months they spent $36.6 billion, up from $11.9 billion.
  • JP Morgan (JPM): $5.2 billion for Q2 2019, up from the $5.1 billion spent in Q1 2019; in the last 12-months they spent $20.6 billion, up from $19.2 billion.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO): $4.9 billion for Q2 2019, down from $6.1 billion for Q1 2019; in the last 12-months they spent $21.6 billion, up from $18.3 billion.

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.   

S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P 500, $ U.S. BILLIONS  (preliminary and estimates in bold)

PERIOD

MARKET

OPERATING

AS REPORTED

DIVIDEND &

VALUE

EARNINGS

EARNINGS

DIVIDENDS

BUYBACKS

DIVIDEND 

BUYBACK 

BUYBACK 

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

YIELD

YIELD

YIELD

12 Mo Jun,’19 Prelim.

$24,423.49

$1,295.01

$1,132.67

$471.54

$797.03

1.93%

3.26%

5.19%

12 Mo Jun,’18

$23,036.32

$1,196.08

$1,043.63

$435.69

$645.81

1.89%

2.80%

4.69%

2018

$21,026.90

$1,281.66

$1,119.43

$456.31

$806.41

2.17%

3.84%

6.01%

2017

$22,821.24

$1,066.00

$940.86

$419.77

$519.40

1.84%

2.28%

4.12%

2016

$19,267.93

$919.85

$818.55

$397.21

$536.38

2.06%

2.78%

4.85%

6/28/2019 Prelim

$24,423

$335.58

$291.25

$118.68

$164.48

1.93%

3.26%

5.19%

3/29/2019

$23,619

$316.48

$291.23

$117.33

$205.81

1.97%

3.49%

5.45%

12/31/2018

$21,027

$293.82

$242.91

$119.81

$222.98

2.17%

3.84%

6.01%

9/30/2018

$24,579

$349.04

$306.70

$115.72

$203.76

1.81%

2.93%

4.75%

6/30/2018

$23,036

$327.53

$288.55

$111.60

$190.62

1.89%

2.80%

4.69%

3/29/2018

$22,496

$311.26

$281.28

$109.18

$189.05

1.90%

2.56%

4.46%

12/29/2017

$22,821

$288.93

$230.12

$109.46

$136.97

1.84%

2.28%

4.12%

9/29/2017

$21,579

$268.35

$243.68

$105.45

$129.17

1.92%

2.40%

4.32%

6/30/2017

$20,762

$261.39

$231.40

$104.01

$120.11

1.96%

2.41%

4.37%

3/31/2017

$20,276

$247.32

$235.65

$100.86

$133.15

1.98%

2.51%

4.49%

12/31/2016

$19,268

$240.11

$207.93

$103.82

$135.29

2.06%

2.78%

4.85%

9/30/2016

$18,742

$247.98

$219.46

$98.43

$112.20

2.10%

2.92%

5.01%

6/30/2016

$18,193

$222.77

$201.79

$98.30

$127.50

2.14%

3.22%

5.36%

3/31/2016

$17,958

$208.99

$189.37

$96.67

$161.39

2.15%

3.28%

5.43%

12/31/2015

$17,900

$201.95

$163.76

$99.39

$145.88

2.14%

3.20%

5.33%

9/30/2015

$16,917

$224.14

$204.58

$95.07

$150.58

2.22%

3.30%

5.52%

6/30/2015

$18,219

$230.84

$201.35

$94.45

$131.56

2.03%

3.04%

5.07%

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P 500 SECTOR BUYBACKS

SECTOR $ MILLIONS

Q2,’18

Q1,’19

Q2,’18

12MoJun,’19

12MoJun,’18

5-YEARS

10-YEARS

Consumer Discretionary

$15,764

$17,721

$22,656

$78,825

$86,352

$429,464

$728,807

Consumer Staples

$7,114

$9,786

$6,580

$36,512

$39,904

$211,298

$439,981

Energy

$4,552

$4,294

$4,285

$24,874

$21,922

$92,142

$263,972

Financials

$37,819

$42,845

$29,968

$166,948

$131,925

$593,911

$813,978

Healthcare

$17,066

$30,749

$27,241

$93,633

$88,210

$408,431

$686,549

Industrials

$16,967

$19,426

$23,426

$74,578

$64,702

$356,504

$543,959

Information Technology

$54,210

$67,986

$71,511

$265,787

$198,677

$864,307

$1,333,335

Materials

$2,420

$4,771

$3,237

$16,062

$8,998

$67,230

$108,265

Real Estate

$555

$409

$884

$2,963

$3,888

$9,334

$9,334

Communication Services

$7,132

$6,345

$419

$33,125

$601

$41,328

$72,197

Utilities

$882

$1,479

$413

$3,720

$631

$8,517

$18,596

TOTAL

$164,481

$205,811

$190,621

$797,028

$645,811

$3,082,465

$5,018,974

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P 500 20 LARGEST Q2 2019 BUYBACKS, $ MILLIONS 

Company  

Ticker

Sector

Q2 2019

12-Months

12-Months

5-Year

10-Year

Indicated

Buybacks

Jun,’19

Jun,’18

Buybacks

Buybacks

Dividend

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

Apple

AAPL

Information Technology

$18,154

$71,443

$63,924

$247,481

$302,414

$14,917

Bank of America

BAC

Financials

$6,507

$23,041

$17,673

$53,164

$58,059

$7,361

Oracle 

ORCL

Information Technology

$6,301

$36,643

$11,853

$70,970

$99,812

$4,621

JPMorgan 

JPM

Financials

$5,210

$20,645

$19,210

$63,391

$83,456

$11,678

Cisco Systems

CSCO

Information Technology

$4,936

$21,579

$18,250

$53,425

$85,891

$5,993

Wells Fargo 

WFC

Financials

$4,906

$24,691

$11,734

$63,997

$79,914

$10,187

Microsoft 

MSFT

Information Technology

$4,633

$19,543

$10,721

$72,464

$112,993

$14,100

Johnson Controls Internat’l

JCI

Industrials

$4,125

$5,154

$484

$8,011

$9,537

$828

Alphabet 

GOOGL

Communication Services

$3,577

$11,452

$6,326

$25,996

$26,914

$0

Citigroup

C

Financials

$3,464

$13,043

$16,071

$49,206

$52,920

$4,717

Intel 

INTC

Information Technology

$3,049

$10,037

$6,920

$34,109

$62,342

$5,641

Booking Holdings

BKNG

Consumer Discretionary

$2,718

$9,557

$3,178

$18,043

$19,578

$0

Johnson & Johnson 

JNJ

Health Care

$2,486

$8,971

$2,715

$36,423

$58,932

$10,089

Amgen

AMGN

Health Care

$2,415

$9,426

$15,730

$32,349

$51,126

$3,538

Biogen 

BIIB

Health Care

$2,402

$4,410

$3,000

$15,325

$20,316

$0

Visa

V

Information Technology

$2,152

$8,178

$7,418

$31,863

$44,473

$1,739

Lowe’s Companies

LOW

Consumer Discretionary

$1,944

$3,961

$2,535

$18,373

$34,586

$1,722

Mastercard 

MA

Information Technology

$1,921

$5,920

$4,824

$20,322

$28,488

$1,498

Honeywell Internat’l

HON

Industrials

$1,900

$4,946

$3,601

$13,875

$16,396

$2,387

Walgreens Boots Alliance

FB

Communication Services

$1,752

$12,083

$10,230

$24,262

$28,017

$0

Top 20   

$84,552

$324,723

$236,397

$953,050

$1,276,164

$101,017

S&P 500

$164,481

$797,028

$645,811

$3,082,465

$5,073,953

$530,924

Top 20 % of S&P 500

51.40%

40.74%

36.60%

30.92%

25.15%

19.03%

   Gross values are not adjusted for float

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P 500 20 Largest Quarterly Buybacks, $ Millions, as of Q2 2019;  Apple added at #6

$ MILLIONS

QUARTER

COMPANY

SECTOR

$23,811

Q1 2019

Apple

Information Technology

1

$22,908

Q1 2018

Apple

Information Technology

2

$21,860

Q2 2018

Apple

Information Technology

3

$21,162

Q2 2006

QUALCOMM

Information Technology

4

$19,364

Q3 2018

Apple

Information Technology

5

$18,154

Q2 2019

Apple

Information Technology

6

$18,036

Q1 2014

Apple

Information Technology

7

$17,319

Q3 2014

Apple

Information Technology

8

$16,413

Q2 2013

Apple

Information Technology

9

$15,707

Q3 2007

International Business Machines 

Information Technology

10

$13,420

Q3 2015

Apple

Information Technology

11

$12,852

Q4 2013

Johnson & Johnson 

Healthcare

12

$12,318

Q4 2016

Allergan plc (AGN)

Healthcare

13

$12,183

Q2 2012

Johnson & Johnson 

Healthcare

14

$11,480

Q4 2016

Apple

Information Technology

15

$11,133

Q4 2017

Apple

Information Technology

16

$10,776

Q2 2016

Apple

Information Technology

17

$10,724

Q2 2015

Apple

Information Technology

18

$10,723

Q1 2016

Home Depot

Consumer Discretionary

19

$10,697

Q1 2018

Amgen 

Healthcare

20

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P 500 Q2 2019 Buyback Report

SECTOR

DIVIDEND

BUYBACK 

COMBINED

YIELD

YIELD

YIELD

Consumer Discretionary

1.43%

3.12%

4.54%

Consumer Staples

3.74%

1.97%

5.71%

Energy

4.03%

2.11%

6.15%

Financials

2.53%

5.04%

7.58%

HealthCare

1.87%

2.77%

4.64%

Industrials

2.10%

3.22%

5.32%

Information Technology

1.52%

4.90%

6.42%

Materials

2.35%

2.46%

4.82%

Real Estate

3.17%

0.38%

3.55%

Communications Services

1.60%

1.50%

3.10%

Utilities

3.18%

0.44%

3.62%

S&P 500

2.18%

3.25%

5.43%

   Uses full values (unadjusted for float)

   Dividends based on indicated; buybacks based on the last 12-months ending Q2,’19

 

Share Count Reduction (SCR)

SCR 

SCR

(Y/Y diluted shares used for EPS)

>=4%

<=-4%

Q2 2019

8.00%

24.20%

Q1 2019

8.03%

24.90%

Q4 2018

8.45%

18.71%

Q3 2018

6.43%

17.67%

Q2 2018

6.20%

15.60%

Q1 2018

7.01%

13.63%

Q4 2017

6.83%

15.06%

Q3 2017

8.62%

14.23%

Q2 2017

10.00%

14.00%

Q1 2017

12.00%

14.80%

Q4 2016

10.48%

19.35%

Q3 2016

9.94%

23.73%

Q2 2016

10.48%

26.61%

Q1 2016

10.06%

28.17%

Q4 2015

9.48%

25.81%

Q3 2015

9.64%

22.69%

Q2 2015

9.04%

21.08%

 

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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices