Business Activity Index at 54.1%; New Orders Index at 55.5%; Employment Index at 50.2%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 47.5%

TEMPE, Ariz., Nov. 3, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month as the Services PMI^® registered 51.8 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The sector has grown in 40 of the last 41 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI^® registered 51.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than September reading of 53.6 percent. The composite index indicated growth in October for the 10th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 54.1 percent, a 4.7-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 58.8 percent in September. The New Orders Index expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55.5 percent is 3.7 percentage points higher than the September reading of 51.8 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 47.5 percent, 2.9 percentage points lower than the 50.4 percent recorded in September. The index returned to contraction territory, indicating that supplier delivery performance was ‘faster’ in contrast to the ‘slowing’ status from the previous month. In the last eight months, the average reading of 48 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 58.6 percent in October, a 0.3-percentage point decrease from the September reading of 58.9 percent. The Inventories Index returned to contraction in October, registering 49.5 percent, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from September’s figure of 54.2 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (54.4 percent, down 0.4 percentage point from September’s reading of 54.8 percent) expanded for the sixth consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent, a 2.3-percentage point increase compared to the September reading of 48.6 percent.

“Twelve industries reported growth in October. The Services PMI^®, by being above 50 percent for the 10th month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector, though at a slower rate in October.

Nieves continues, “The services sector continues to slow, with decreases in the Business Activity and Employment indexes. Sentiment among Business Survey Committee respondents’ comments is mixed, with some optimistic about the current steady and stable business conditions and others concerned about such economic factors as inflation, interest rates and geopolitical events. Employment-related challenges are also prevalent, with comments about increasing labor costs, as well as shortages.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE 

The 12 services industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Other Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Information. The five industries reporting a decrease in the month of October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “In general, commodity prices are coming down, but some categories, especially labor, are still elevated and will remain so for the immediate future. Suppliers are citing increased labor costs — wages, salaries and benefits — as the biggest reason for their price increases.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Strength in certain construction sectors is leading to continued optimism. Construction equipment and materials are at generally at lower prices and with faster deliveries. However, this is not the case for all materials or equipment; some prices remain high and with long lead (times).” [Construction]
• “Currently, we are continuing as normal. If the economy takes a downturn, that will have a negative effect on our revenue. We are also leery of potential increases in fuel costs due in part to the unrest in the Middle East. If fuel costs rise, it will have a negative impact on our budget as we strive to continue normal operations on our campus.” [Educational Services]
• “Labor pressures continue, particularly in areas that are hard to recruit. Filling front-line and lower-skill labor positions has gotten very expensive because of competition from large companies and logistics providers. Also, middle management roles are harder to recruit for than they have been in some years.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “With (a supplier’s) labor dispute resolved; we’re expecting a return to the same delivery speeds before it started in July. We are in our busy season, and it’s especially busy this year compared to last fall.” [Information]
• “We are taking a cautious approach due to the increase in crude oil prices. Capital projects have been slowed or postponed until oil prices stabilize. We expect this approach to continue through fiscal year 2024.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Due to the Israel-Hamas war, communications with clients in the Middle East are pretty much shut down.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike is having no impact so far — our inventory is in good position for now.” [Retail Trade]
• “The general outlook for our organization is less positive than anticipated from the beginning of the year. Performance expectations were revised upward after a strong start to the year, and the results are not expected to be as high as the revised projections. Performance is impacted in part by our customers’ ability to fill our warehouses with product, and it seems the food manufacturing industry is still working toward increasing output, which has lagged a bit since the pandemic.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Business conditions have become murky as of late, but still going strong. However, certain business units are needing to be reevaluated.” [Utilities]
• “The UAW strike and potential government shutdown have created risk and caution for our customers who have pulled back on purchases beginning this month.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Beef; Computers and Related Items; Dairy Products; Diesel Fuel (4); Electric Transformers; Food and Beverages; Food and Catering; Fuel* (3); Gasoline (9); Insulation; Labor (35); Labor — Contract (2); Maintenance Contracts; Oil and Related Products (2); Petroleum Based Products; Software Licensing; and Software Maintenance and Support.

Commodities Down in Price

Caustic Soda; Copper Based Products; Fuel*; Lumber; and Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Panels.

Commodities in Short Supply

Catheters; Electrical Components (7); Labor (12); Labor — Construction (2); Transformers (14); and Vehicles (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

OCTOBER 2023 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®

In October, the Services PMI^® registered 51.8 percent, a 1.8-percentage point decrease compared to the September reading of 53.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the October Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the 10th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for October (51.8 percent) corresponds to a 0.7-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity

ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 54.1 percent in October, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from the reading of 58.8 percent in September, indicating growth for the 41st consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “New business units coming aboard” and “Fuel consumption, parts issued and work orders are all lower.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Public Administration; Information; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Retail Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders

ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 55.5 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from the September reading of 51.8 percent. The index indicated expansion for the 10th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: “New projects are starting that were previously delayed due to recession fears” and “Higher interest rates and uncertainty looming in the economy is the common belief.”

The 12 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of October — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Other Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Information. The four industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment

Employment activity in the services sector grew in October for the fifth consecutive month after contracting in May, with three consecutive months of growth before that. The Employment Index registered 50.2 percent, down 3.2 percentage points from the September figure of 53.4 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Replacing offshore team with employees in India” and “Tight labor market.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in employment in October — listed in order — are: Construction; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated a return to faster performance in October, registering 47.5 percent, down 2.9 percentage points from the 50.4 percent recorded in September, the first “slower” reading since November 2022. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Steel conduit lead times have increased” and “Seemed that some supply chain logjams opened.”

The three industries reporting slower deliveries in October are: Other Services; Construction; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The nine industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of October — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries reported no change in deliveries in October.  

Inventories

The Inventories Index contracted in October. The reading of 49.5 percent was a 4.7-percentage point decrease compared to the 54.2 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 48 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Inventory reduction program in place” and “Recent deployments, and still awaiting receipt of replacement inventory.”

The six industries reporting an increase in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Utilities; Construction; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Information; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Six industries reported no change in inventories.

Prices

Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in October for the 77th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 58.6 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 58.9 percent registered in September. The October reading is the 16th in a row near or below 70 percent (with eight straight months below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Ten services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of October, in the following order: Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The four industries reporting a decrease in prices for October are: Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; and Construction.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in October after contracting in September. The index reading of 50.9 percent is 2.3 percentage points higher than the 48.6 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 49 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Business is at an increased pace due to current administration spending” and “Securing more contracts in commercial construction.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in October — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Construction; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. The four industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in October are: Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Six industries reported no change in backlogs in October.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies dramatically declined in October after six consecutive months of expansion. The New Export Orders Index registered 48.8 percent, a 14.9-percentage point decrease from the 63.7 percent reported in September. This decline of 14.9 percentage points is the fourth largest decrease ever. Of the total respondents in October, 72 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in October — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Construction; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Wholesale Trade. Nine industries reported no change in new export orders in October.

Imports

The Imports Index registered 60 percent in October, 9.4 percentage points higher than September’s reading of 50.6 percent. This jump of 9.4 percentage points is the fifth largest increase ever. The index has indicated expansion in 12 of the last 14 months, with the only contraction in March and an “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) in May. Sixty-seven percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The only industry to report a decrease in imports in October is Wholesale Trade. Ten industries reported no change in imports in October.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the sixth consecutive month in October after one month of contraction in April, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 54.4 percent, a 0.4-percentage point decrease from September’s figure of 54.8 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Utilities; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in October are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Management of Companies & Support Services. Seven industries reported no change in inventory sentiment in October.

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of October 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®

Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring November 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, December 5, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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