It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tesla (TSLA). Shares have added about 22.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tesla due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Tesla Puts Up a Stellar Show in Q3
Tesla reported third-quarter 2021 earnings of $1.86, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39. A higher-than-expected automotive gross profit resulted in this outperformance. Precisely, the automotive gross profit came in at $3,673 million, topping the consensus mark of $3,328 million. The bottom line also compares favorably with the year-ago earnings of 76 cents a share.
Total revenues came in at $13,757 million, beating the consensus mark of $13,163 million. The top line also witnessed year-over-year growth of 56.8%. Importantly, the electric vehicle giant reported an automotive gross margin of 30.5% and overall gross margin of 26.6% during the quarter. Further, the operating margin came in at 14.6%, exceeding the company’s medium-term guidance of operating margin in low-teens.
Key Takeaways
Production and delivery totaled 237,823 and 241,391 vehicles, reflecting a year-over-year jump of 64% and 73%, respectively. Tesla reported stellar third-quarter 2021 production and deliveries despite the global chip shortage, thanks to the increasing popularity of green vehicles, preference for personal mobility, easier credit conditions, and economic recovery buoyed by the accelerated vaccination drive as well as the massive fiscal stimulus.
The Model 3/Y registered production and deliveries of 228,882 and 232,102 vehicles, marking year-over-year growth of 79% and 87%, respectively. Meanwhile, the production and delivery of the Model S/X plunged 47% and 39% on a year-over-year basis to 8,941 and 9,289 units, respectively.
Total automotive revenues surged 58% year over year to $12,057 million for the reported quarter. The figure also topped the consensus mark of $11,593 million. This included $279 million from the sale of regulatory credits for electric vehicles, which decreased 30% year over year. The automotive gross margin came in at 30.5%, expanding 281 basis points from third-quarter 2020.
The energy generation and storage revenues came in at $806 million for third-quarter 2021 compared with the year-ago period’s $579 million. The reported figure also surpassed the consensus mark of $740 million. Services and other revenues were up 53.9% year over year to $894 million, but lagged the consensus mark of $899 million marginally.
Operating expenses totaled $1,656 million for the reported quarter, up from the $1,254 million incurred in the corresponding period of 2020.
While Tesla has not provided any clear delivery target for 2021, it reiterated its goal of achieving 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon.
Financials
Tesla had cash and cash equivalents of $16,065 million as of Sep 30, 2021 compared with $14,531 million on Sep 30, 2020. The net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $3,147 million for third-quarter 2021, up 31% year on year. Its capital expenditure totaled $1,819 million, up from the $1,005 million recorded in the third quarter of 2020.
The firm generated free cash flow of $1,328 million during the quarter, down 5% year on year. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of current portion as on Sep 30, 2021 totaled $6,438 million, down from $10,559 million on Sep 30, 2020.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 13.18% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Tesla has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Tesla has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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